keithareilly wrote:Thought I would bump this back to the first page and see if anyone has considered the econimic turmoil in the EU may in the years to come lead to civil war.
Keith
Hi Keith, Europe is what everyone should be watching, imo. But I don't think you are going to see any kind of civil war between countries of the EU.
What the crisis is about is long term borrowing of the individual countries to operate their governments. The weaker countries that really don't have manufacturing industries, compared to stronger countries like Germany, don't produce as many goods and services - which is GDP, Gross Domestic Product, a measurement of the economy.
So they have been borrowing to the point that they don't have the ability to repay the borrowed money, nor the interest that has been exponentially accumulating. When those countries borrow money, the way they do it is to issue bonds (of debt) that promises the buyer of those bonds that they are going to pay them back plus some interest. The interest is the incentive of the buyers of the bonds to buy them.
So who are the buyers of Greek bonds? Well it is the big banks in the other EU countries mainly, plus some investors around the world. In the EU, the banks in the individual countries are holding bonds of other EU countries. So if a country like Greece defaults, cannot make the monthly payment (like your credit card payment, those bonds become devalued to nothing. Thus, some of those investor bank may fail; that is, the non performing bonds are no longer assets on their books, and they don't have enough money on hand to be considered solvent - which is just another way of saying they could not give savings account holders back their money if enough of them decided to withdraw their money.
If enough of the savings account holders (checking account holders etc.) decide to pull their money out all at once in a panic, that is called a "run". And the bank can't pay. So they close their doors. 1929 style.
Because all of the countries of the EU are holding each others' debt, the fear is one country like Greece might trigger a domino effect bringing down the banking system of the other EU countries. They particular fear is called "contagion" in the news when talking about the EU money crisis.
At root of the problem is the politicians in the individual countries make polices that add to the inherent problems of borrowing money to operate their governments, rather than operating on debt free budget. The policy issue is called "fiscal" policy, and the accusation is that countries like Greece have operated on irresponsible "fiscal" policy.... like a person overspending on a credit card way above their means.
So the Europeans are pushing for a central authority to approve/disapprove fiscal policies of the individual countries. That means giving up sovereignty of the members states. Which is the big obstacle. But from bible prophecy, it appears that is exactly what is going to happen. A central authority, a power, to rule over the member states of the EU which can control the fiscal policy of the member countries directly. Which, imo, will have the power to remove heads of state for infractions. Which will be done by the little horn... the Antichrist when he first comes to the fore front.
Right now we don't have central authority in the EU with that kind of power. But that is what to watch for as I think we are very close.
imo, because the Antichrist will in his first stage of his career be the little horn, and then the Prince who shall come, the perceived messiah to Israel, when Gog/Magog attacks. I think Europe will front run the Gog/Magog event. As that is also forming.
Back to civil war in Europe. No, not imo. But in the individual countries themselves, there will be riots against those governments at they implement austerity programs in order to continue to borrow money. The bond holders are the ones pressuring the Greeks. And the bond holders, the big portion of them, are the bankers of Europe. What they want is for the European governments to come up with ways to keep Greece, and other similar countries, from defaulting.
The problem for Greeks is that those austerity policies affect an entire generation of Greeks, because it is no quick fix, or even a fix, but kicking the can down the road, so to speak. So the Greeks are rioting, really mad at their governments as tightening goes into effect.
Doug
