Regarding the previous article, I thought it kind of odd for Turkey to respond to Iraq in this manner, if they are trying to maintain Iraqi unity and curb Iran's influence there. Turkish claims to desire good relations appear to be souring in that region, and I believe the Syria situation is the catalyst for this. Think about this, for the price tag of 3 million bucks Turkey is willing to gum up regional relationships and make themselves appear to be petty and selfish ? I don't think so. There is a lot more going on here than meets the eye, or that appears in the news. So here are a few things going on we think we know about. Turkey, Iraq, and Iran all agree on mutual cooperation, sort of, against the PKK, the Kurdish rebels and their influence in their respective nations, that being no one wants an autonomous Kurdistan seeking their own nation by claiming lands from their respective nations. The US pull out is a contributing factor, leaving a vacuum of military enforcement power to protect Iraq from being picked apart. Yet it appears the scrap is on, and has nothing to do with Iraqi military efficacy. The sides have been choosing up for a while now, and it appears the national Iraqi govt is going with Iran and Syria, with the KRG, Kurdistan Regional Govt working on Turkey for the Kurdish populations there and subsequent support. In the balance of all this is the oil rich Kirkuk and Mosul regions of Iraqi Kurdistan. Ever wonder what happened to the Kirkuk resolution of 2007 ? That was never agreed on and passed into national law ? Turns out the region has a history of complications from before the Treaty of Luasanne which has yet to be worked out today, with the monkey and wrench being the Ankara Agreement of March 1926, not clearly defining who owns the land, so until that gets figured out Iraq has to pay oil royalties to Turkey. This is the Iraqi oil debt owed to Turkey mentioned in the previous article. It's not just the 3 million bucks they are attaching to this seemingly petty squabble.
Getting back to choosing up sides, Turkey's biggest supporter is the US, with a hesitant EU right in there, especially France, Germany, and Britain who all have an interest, purportedly backed up with legal documents, in Kurdistan ownership and natural resources, that being, umm, oil and natural gas. Then figure in Turkey's popularity on the Arab street, and PM Erdogan tiptoeing through the Regional Arab leadership, only occasionally stepping on a toe. So while Turkey is more and more dancing to the Star Spangled Banner they are also quietly attempting to let the Arabs handle the Syria problem and not get any blood on their hands, all the while pretending not to be a western puppet. The ultimate battle over Syria is Iran and it's shia crescent. Iraq siding with Syria, and so therefore Iran, has put them at odds with nearly everyone on the planet who is fed up with the Iranian regime. Guess who is getting the benefit of this right now ? Israel, but just for now. No one wants a war, but it would be nice if the Iranian regime changed it's tune, either through a diplomatic change of heart, or an actual Arab Spring type revolution. The Iranian resistance, or opposition if you want to call them that still has a name, the Green Revolution that raised itself up in the 09 elections. Parliamentary elections come around there in March next year, and if it hasn't all blown up beforehand we can expect to see them on the streets again.
The crucial factor in this is the when and how Assad of Syria gets removed from power. If that happens smoothly, and we have to consider the nature of the region in this assessment, I think we will see the fall of the shia influenced regimes, meaning a change towards moderation in Iran and Syria, with the ever popular Turkey being a model modern muslim nation still attempting to lead the way. I think it will go this way whether there is an actual war or not. But after it is over, then we can get down to the serious intrigue, corruption, and betrayal that is still coming for the Middle East and Israel.
Meanwhile, here are a couple links that elaborate on the history of this situation. Long but interesting reads.http://www.stradigma.com/english/march2 ... es_06.htmlhttp://www.manaz.net/?page_id=165