Turkey : Part Four

[Exit40]

Five things to know about Turkey's rift with Trump
BY ELLEN MITCHELL - 07/21/19 09:12 PM EDT

The United States' relationship with Turkey hit a low point this week after a rift over a Russia missile system that has taken the two nations’ alliance to a new level of animosity.

Washington on Wednesday officially booted Ankara from the F-35 fighter jet program over the NATO ally’s purchase of the Russian S-400 surface-to-air missile defense system.

The move drew the ire of Turkey, whose government said the move went counter to the “spirit of alliance,” and called on Washington to reverse the decision.

“We call on the United States to come back from this mistake that will cause irreparable damage to our strategic ties,” Turkey’s Foreign Ministry said in a statement.

But the Trump administration’s move was hardly a surprise as it has threatened such retaliation for months if Turkey took delivery of the first shipment of S-400 parts, which it did on July 12.

This also marks yet another fracture in the relationship between the two nations, after years of brewing tensions and deteriorating goodwill marked by disagreements over foreign allies, sanctions and leadership style.

Here are five things to know about the latest rift and previous clashes between the two countries....

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God Bless

David

[Exit40]

Erdogan Economics Weaponized as Central Bank Looks to Cut Rates
Bloomberg Cagan Koc Bloomberg•July 24, 2019

(Bloomberg) -- Turkey is about to embark on one of the greatest central banking experiments in emerging markets -- and the timing couldn’t be better.

Long a believer that high interest rates cause inflation, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is finally putting that unconventional theory into practice by installing Murat Uysal as governor this month after firing his predecessor for failing to cut sooner.

As the drumbeat of political pressure grows on central banks from the U.S. to India, Erdogan has one-upped his counterparts thanks to broad new powers granted to his office after last year’s general election. A policy meeting on Thursday will show just how sharp a pivot the central bank is prepared to make.

Turkey is ripe for monetary easing. A dovish turn in monetary policy globally and a downswing in inflation has left Turkey with the world’s highest real rate. Powerful base effects will likely continue to choke off price growth in the months ahead....

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David

[Exit40]

JULY 24, 2019 / 4:45 AM / UPDATED A DAY AGO
Turkey has 'no patience left' with U.S. on Syria safe zone
Tuvan Gumrukcu

ANKARA (Reuters) - Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said on Wednesday that new U.S. proposals for a safe zone in northern Syria fall short and Turkey was running out of patience as Washington appears to be stalling in efforts to seal an agreement.

U.S. special envoy for Syria James Jeffrey held talks in Ankara this week on the zone and other issues, including progress on a roadmap agreed last year for the northern town of Manbij to be cleared of the Kurdish YPG militia.

The militia has been the main U.S. ally on the ground in Syria during Washington’s fight against Islamic State.

However, Turkey has been infuriated by U.S. support for the YPG, which Ankara considers a terrorist organization, and has repeatedly demanded that Washington cut its ties.

Following the U.S. decision to withdraw from northern Syria, the NATO allies agreed to create the safe zone, which Turkey says should be controlled by its forces and also cleared of the YPG.

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God Bless

David

[Exit40]

Turkey Threatens to Reignite European Migrant Crisis
by Soeren Kern July 31, 2019 at 5:00 am

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/1462 ... ant-crisis

"We are facing the biggest wave of migration in history. If we open the floodgates, no European government will be able to survive for more than six months. We advise them not to try our patience." — Turkish Interior Minister Süleyman Soylu.

"Turkey is fully committed to the objective of EU membership... The finalization of the Visa Liberalization Dialogue process which will allow our citizens to travel to the Schengen area without a visa, is our first priority." — Statement released by the Turkish Foreign Ministry, May 9, 2019.

"This doesn't mean that I have anything against the Turks.... But if we begin to explain it — that Turkey is in Europe — European school students will have to be told that the European border lies in Syria. Where's common sense? ... Can Turkey be regarded a European country culturally, historically, and economically speaking? If we say that, we want the European Union's death." — Former French President Nicolas Sarkozy.

If the EU approves the visa waiver, tens of millions of Turks will gain immediate and unimpeded access to Europe's passport-free zone. Critics of visa liberalization fear that millions of Turkish nationals may end up migrating to Europe. The Austrian newsmagazine, Wochenblick, reported that 11 million Turks are living in poverty and "many of them are dreaming of moving to central Europe."...

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David

[Exit40]

Russia, Turkey, Iran: Adversaries of the West's NATO Alliance
by Con Coughlin August 5, 2019 at 5:00 am

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/1465 ... aries-nato

Germany's outright rejection of Washington's request [to support Washington's proposal for a maritime protection force in the Arabian Gulf to protect shipping from attacks by Iran] is likely to inflame tensions further between Washington and Berlin. U.S. President Donald J. Trump is already at odds with German Chancellor Angela Merkel on a range of issues, from Germany's obstinate refusal to meet its Nato funding commitments to its pursuit of closer energy ties with Russia through the construction of the controversial Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline.

Mr Trump is highly critical of the project. He argues that it will make Europe, and especially Germany, too dependent on Moscow for its energy needs, which could undermine the resolve of the Nato alliance to take a robust stand against Moscow in any future confrontation.

So, at a time when the Western alliance is already struggling with how to respond to Turkey's deepening military ties with Russia, Germany's refusal to fulfil its obligations to protect shipping in the Gulf will be interpreted by adversaries of the West such as Moscow and Tehran as yet further evidence of what would doubtless please them very much: deepening divisions within the Western alliance....

God Bless

David

[keithareilly]

[Exit40]

OPINION/TURKEY
Understanding the 'S-400 crisis'
The purchase of the S-400 does not mean Turkey is 'turning its back' on NATO.
Verda Ozer by Verda Ozer 24 hours ago

On July 31, the deadline the United States set for Turkey to abandon its deal with Russia for the S-400 missile system expired. As Ankara continues its efforts to negotiate with Washington and convince it not to impose sanctions, pundits in the West have started to talk about a major shift in Turkish foreign policy. Some have gone as far as to suggest that Turkey has "turned its back on the US" and is gravitating closer to Russia.

While this is not the first time a NATO member has bought a military system from Moscow - Greece purchased the S-300, the older version of the S-400, in 1996 - the Turkish-Russian deal comes at a time of heightened tensions between the West and Russia and increasing fractures within the transatlantic alliance. It has caused a "first of a kind" internal crisis in the alliance and has gotten Washington worried.

The purchase of the S-400 will indeed affect Turkey's strategic alliance with the US, but it will not break it. In the future, Ankara will have to balance between its 67-year-old NATO membership and other partners, rather than replacing one with the other....

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God Bless

David

[Exit40]

ISIS, Assad, and Turkey Are Waging a Shadow War on U.S. Allies in Syria
Arson, bombs, spies, and propaganda stoke tensions in northeast Syria as Turkish troops mobilize along the border for a threatened invasion.

Kevin Knodell Benedetta Argentieri Published 08.08.19 5:05AM ET

QAMISHLO, Syria—An enormous fire raged across several wheat fields outside this town on July 6. It was a dry summer day and dark smoke towered over the countryside as the flames spread across the farmland. Some locals watched in awe at the inferno. Others tried to fight back with shovels and rakes. They had little success. They watched the blaze consume their livelihood. Locals told The Daily Beast that the fire started near Turkish military checkpoints along the border and made its way south across Kurdish farms.

Scenes like this have become commonplace this summer as fires have burned across Northeast Syria (or “Rojava” as it is known to the Kurds and their supporters). They have been particularly destructive this year and suspiciously concentrated in contested territories that make up the lines between between U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), Turkish troops and Syrian pro-regime forces—as well as scattered fires near former ISIS strongholds.

Now, as Turkish leaders threaten to invade this region, things could heat up even more....

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David

[Exit40]

Western allegations over Turkish economy debunked a year after lira plunge
DAILY SABAH ISTANBUL Published 09.08.2019 Updated 09.08.2019

A money changer counts Turkish lira bills at an currency exchange office in Istanbul December 16, 2014. (Reuters Photo)
A money changer counts Turkish lira bills at an currency exchange office in Istanbul December 16, 2014. (Reuters Photo)
"Some analysts have suggested Turkey should seek support from the IMF," read a line from a piece published in Financial Times on Aug. 10, 2018, when the Turkish economy was under heavy pressure from the strengthening dollar.

The emerging markets editor in the FT, Jonathan Wheatley, claimed that only way out for President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and his administration was to "raise interest rates, turn to the IMF, impose capital controls or wait it out."

"Judging by his actions so far, Erdoğan's next move will be to impose capital controls," Larry Elliott, the Guardian's economics editor, also alleged in a piece published just two days later....

Snip... "It's 1 year after the big Turkish lira blowup of 2018, the lira is 25% stronger than its worst levels, rates are at 18 month lows, and as usual Turkey has defied repeated predictions of economic collapse," he said in a tweet....

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**** We should note that while this seems a positive report, Daily Sabah is a very pro govt source. D ****

God Bless

David